Consolidation the need of the hour

By Arun Kejriwal

It was a very short three-day week which had trading on Monday, Wednesday and Thursday last week. The good part was that markets gained on all three days with the bulk of the gains coming on Wednesday. While this would be the third consecutive weekly gain, the momentum of the previous week was certainly missing.

BSESENSEX gained 841.45 points or 1.43 per cent to close at 59,832.97 points while NIFTY gained 239.40 points or 1.38 per cent to close at 17,599.15 points. The broader markets saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 1.30 per cent, 1.28 per cent and 1.36 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 1.19 per cent while BSESMALLCAP gained 2.85 per cent.

The Indian Rupee gained 29 paisa or 0.35 per cent to close at Rs 81.88 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones gained on three of the four trading sessions. Dow gained 211.14 points or 0.63 per cent to close at 33,485.29 points.

It may be mentioned here that of the three days of gains, one day was actually flat. Yet another point to be made was that Nasdaq and S&P 500, both lost for the week. Dow was a standalone gainer mainly on account of the sharp jump in crude oil prices in the beginning of the week. It appears the rally is likely to pause for breath in the coming days.

RBI in its bi-monthly policy meeting decided to keep repo rates unchanged. It mentioned that it's just a pause and that the rates may be raised going forward. Very clearly the difference in inflation in India and the US and the issues being faced by the two economies have come out. Repo rate remains unchanged at 6.75 per cent.

Markets began trading for the new financial year on a positive note last Friday (March 31) and carried part of the same momentum into this week as well. There was action in midcap and Smallcap stocks during the week. One saw sharp one day moves where stocks moved 8-15 per cent in a single day. Very clearly part of this was friendly support and not linked to any significant buying in the stock. The rally happened in many of the recently listed stocks which had slipped significantly from their highs. The sustainability or further movement from here would depend on buying emerging in these stocks.

The IPO from Avalon Technologies Limited which was open between Monday (April 3) and Thursday (April 6) was subscribed. The company had tapped the markets with its fresh issue for Rs 320 crore and an offer for sale of Rs 545 crore in a price band of Rs 415-436. The issue was overall subscribed 2.32 times with QIB portion subscribed 3.75 times, HNI portion undersubscribed at 0.43 times and Retail portion undersubscribed at 0.88 times. There were roughly 39,000 applications in all. The subscription to the issue could be termed as average and probably explained with the holidays during the week.

The week ahead would be interesting with there being four days of trading and Friday being a holiday in India alone. This would lead to squaring up of positions on Thursday depending on which way the markets have moved during the week. Key resistance for the markets would be at 17,850-900 on NIFTY and at 60,550-60,700 on BSESENSEX. If these are breached, then the next levels would be at 18,050-18,100 and at 61,100-61,250 points. On the support side, the immediate levels are at 17,250-17,300 and at 58,800-58,950 points. In case this is breached the next levels would be at 17,000-050 and at 58,050-58,200 points.

TCS would be declaring results on Wednesday (April 12) followed by Infosys on Thursday (April 13). Wipro has announced the date as April 27. The first two results would give a fair idea about traction that IT companies are having in the US and also about hiring and firing that is being witnessed in the sector. For rural demand one would have to wait a little longer till consumer companies declare results.

The strategy for the week would be to keep an eye open for early trends from companies reporting results to get a sense of costs and demand. The rally has been swift and sharp and a little too good for comfort. If this rally has legs, it needs to first consolidate at these levels, failing which it would be in danger of fizzling out. Stick to the large caps and wait for solid news flow before committing fresh money. There is no need to be in a tearing hurry to invest. Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

Source: IANS