Assam to see temperatures rise by 2.2 degrees, 38% more extreme rainfall in 30 years

By Tanuj Dhar

Guwahati, Nov 13 (SocialNews.XYZ) For its geographical proximity to the delta region, Assam has been always extremely vulnerable to climate change. High rainfall and subtropical climate are characteristics of Assam.

The flood is an annual phenomenon in the state. The region faces occasional droughts also. Even as climate change has increased the severity of both floods and drought, the case of Assam has received less importance so far.

Most of the government efforts have been concentrated on rehabilitation rather than dealing with the changed situation.

A state action plan reveals that Assam is likely to see an increase in temperature up to 2.2 degrees in the next 30 years while the extreme rainfall occurrence may also see an upturn of 38 per cent.

This year, Assam has seen at least three waves of the flood.

The first two that occurred in May and June were devastating. The Dima Hasao district received unprecedented landslides at that time.

The pictures of a train at Haflong railway station that was pushed off the railway track due to the impact of mudslides from the nearby hills went viral everywhere. This hilly district had witnessed devastation and all sorts of communication and connectivity to Dima Hasao got snapped for a few days.

The restoration of train services on a route that goes through Dima Hasao and connects three northeastern states took more than two months.

The Assam government even had to arrange essentials like petrol and diesel through helicopters.

But, here also, all the government agencies were involved only in rebuilding infrastructure than trying to find an answer to that large-scale devastation.

On the condition of anonymity, a senior government official accepted that there is a need of shifting focus only from rehabilitation after a natural disaster happens.

In addition to its presence in one of the highest rainfall zones in the world, Assam has a number of major rivers which originate mainly from the lower Himalayan region.

The spell of rains over a week causes the rivers in the state to accumulate a high volume of water which often culminates in flash floods in the urban areas.

Flooding has become a regular phenomenon at the Kaziranga National Park. The repeated floods happen there as it is situated in the floodplains of the river Brahmaputra.

Every monsoon the river overflows and submerges nearly two-thirds (66 per cent) of Kaziranga which also claim animal lives. The worst that Kaziranga experienced was in 2017 when the floods killed at least 350 animals at the national park.

The lower and upper Assam areas are also prone to annual floods. The river erosion problem of Brahmaputra has reached a complex point in many areas which has already forced a large number of population to alter their place of living. With the first two spells badly affecting lower and upper Assam, the third round of flood had also hit at least 70,000 people there.

Soil erosion, coupled with climatic change conditions, has created a massive delinquent for the inhabitants of Majuli -- the largest river island in the world.

River Brahmaputra has swallowed half of the island over the last six decades with a flood in 2017 having left a strong dent in the island in terms of erosion. This has severely affected agriculture and livelihood there.

A previous year's report of the Standing Committee on Water Resources (SCWR) in Assam stated that the embankments on many rivers have become old and need raising and strengthening as well as bank protection measures in form of revetment or reinforced cement concrete porcupines requiring huge capital investment.

The poor condition of the embankment has caused havoc this June in Silchar -- the second most populous town in Assam.

The city witnessed the worst form of urban flood due to a breach in an embankment on the Barak river. Ninety per cent of houses were submerged in flood water for nearly 11 days with the water level in some places rising up to 12 feet.

The rainfall data from India Meteorological Department shows that the actual rainfall from June 1 to June 27 in the Cachar district was 726.3 mm against the normal rainfall of 386.1 mm with a departure of 88 per cent.

The weather department calls the rainfall a "large excess" when the departure is equal to or greater than 60 per cent.

In fact, this year's rainfall data shows an abrupt pattern where maximum rain happened from mid-May to June.

But, during peak monsoon season in July to September, when usually rain lashes the state faced a drought-like situation this time. The third splash of flood occurred in the last part of September.

According to environmentalists, climate change has disrupted the rainfall pattern in the state. Many believe that the role of climate change in the repeated occurrence of floods in Assam may take even more time to properly understand.

But, much of the rain which can be expected to come in the whole monsoon season now arrives within a few weeks over the past few years. Scientists are saying this has clearly indicated variability in rainfall which typically accounts for the climate change in the entire region.

Source: IANS