Markets under pressure and look vulnerable

The week gone by saw markets gain on three of the five trading sessions, yet they lost considerable ground. The start of a new September futures series was also a mixed bag with the series beginning with a bang but by end of day turning out to be just about positive.

BSESENSEX lost 812.28 points or 1.36 per cent to close at 58,833.87 points while NIFTY lost 199.55 points or 1.12 per cent to close at 17,558.90 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.00 per cent, 0.85 per cent and 0.65 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP gained 0.61 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was up 0.85 per cent.

The Indian Rupee lost 6 paisa or 0.08 per cent to close at Rs 79.86 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones had a torrid week and was under pressure. It lost on three of the five days and Friday was literally a meltdown when it lost just over 1,000 points. It lost 1,008.38 points after FED chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that they are on track to reach interest rates of between 3.75 per cent - 4 per cent by the end of the calendar year. This means that the next hike in September would be 75 basis points and the next one in November may bring a 50-basis points hike. The last and final meeting in December would decide where interest rates end at the end of the year. Currently interest rates in the US are in the range of 2.25-2.50 per cent. This statement by Powell, caused markets to plummet as over the last fortnight they had built in a softer rate hike.

The impact of what happened in the US on Friday will be felt over the world when they resume trading on Monday.

Our markets are closed for a holiday on Wednesday the 31st of August on account of Ganesh Chaturthi, the day when Lord Ganesh is brought home. It used to be a celebration in just Mumbai and Maharashtra, but is now a national event. This would break trading momentum and being a mid-week holiday, any meaningful rally would be difficult to sustain.

In primary market news, it was a blockbuster Friday with one listing and one issue closing for subscription, and both doing very well.

The listing from Syrma SGS Technology Limited which had issued shares at Rs 220 closed day one at Rs 313.05. The script gained Rs 93.05 or 42.5 per cent. The share saw robust trading and it was a little surprising that at the end of the day, no names were reported of people who had bought the stock.

The issue from Dreamfolks Limited which had tapped the markets with its offer for sale of 172.42 lac shares in a price band of Rs 308-326 closed. The issue was open from Wednesday the 26th of August to Friday the 28th of August. The issue was subscribed 56.67 times with QIB portion subscribed 70.53 times, HNI portion subscribed 37.66 times and Retail portion subscribed 43.60 times. The issue got a favourable rub-off from the subscription and performance of Syrma SGS. Whether this replicates in future issues would be something that would be keenly watched.

Issues to open from 1st September would see a change in the way money gets blocked against bids made through brokers. It was witnessed in almost all issues over the last 12 months, that investors bid for shares on the last day and then took a call depending on the final subscription whether they would block their money against the bid or allow the same to lapse. This saw many IPOs which were subscribed to actually end as undersubscribed and getting bailed out by reducing the offer for sale component. In the case of one issue, the merchant bankers had to contribute to the shortfall through the underwriting agreement. This would no longer be possible. It would be interesting times at the markets.

Coming to the week ahead, we have a mid-week Wednesday trading holiday which would break the momentum. The previous week's top of 60,400 and 18,000 would act as very strong resistances on any upside that the markets make while levels of 58,200 and 17,400 would act as immediate support. However, if markets break these support levels, we would have another sharp fall of maybe another 2 per cent in the benchmark indices happening rapidly. The new support could then be around 17,000 on NIFTY and 57,000 on BSESENSEX. The big concern would now be the FED announcement and the fact that the US market which fell 1,000 points on Friday is now becoming a cause for concern.

The strategy would be to buy on really sharp dips and sell on any rallies.