New highs and momentum, to see further upswing

By Arun Kejriwal

Markets are on a roll, at least the benchmark indices as they hit new lifetime highs. BSESENSEX gained 1,159.57 points or 2.14 per cent to close at 55,437.29 points while NIFTY gained 290.90 points or 1.79 per cent to close at 16.543.60 points. The broader markets gained much less with BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gaining 1.32 per cent, 1.02 per cent and 0.76 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 1.14 per cent while BSESMALLCAP lost 1.68 per cent.

As is clearly visible, the entire action is limited to the benchmark indices and within the 50-55 stocks that are part of the indices. The performing stocks could be a mere handful, say around 10. On Friday for example, the top four performing BSESENSEX stocks contributed 60 per cent of the day's gains. These were TCS, Reliance, HDFC Bank and Infosys. As markets continue their euphoria, one would see more of this skewed movement.

The Indian Rupee lost 9 paisa or 0.12 per cent to close at Rs 74.25 to the US Dollar. Dow Jones set yet another new record high with it gaining 306.87 points or 0.87 per cent to close at 35,515.38 points which was a new lifetime closing high. The intraday high was set on Friday at 35,611 points.

In the last week of July, one saw the break out coming in BSESENSEX and NIFTY when markets gave definite indications of breaking out and crossing key resistances of 53,100-53,300 on BSESENSEX and 15,950-15,975 on NIFTY. Having achieved that, markets have been pressing the pedal.

The week gone by saw four primary issues opening and closing for subscription. One common feature of all these issues was the size and the smallest of them was around Rs 3,000 crore and the largest Rs 5,000 crore. Compare this with the previous week where the total of four issues was Rs 4,600 crore.

The first issue from the lot was Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Limited which was subscribed 1.74 times. The HNI portion and Retail portion remained undersubscribed. There were 7.20 lakh applications. The second issue was from Car Trade Tech Limited and was subscribed 20.29 times. Here the QIB portion was subscribed 35.45 times, HNI portion 41 times and Retail portion was subscribed 2.75 times. There were 17.29 lakh applications in all. In terms of forms, this was the issue which received maximum traction, yet it was less than half of what was received in Devyani International which received 38.40 lakh applications.

The third issue was from Aptus Value Housing Finance India Limited which was subscribed 17.20 times. QIB portion was subscribed 32.41 times, HNI portion 33.91 times and Retail portion 1.35 times. There were 7.81 lakh applications. The fourth and final issue from Chemplast Sanmar Limited was subscribed 2.21 times with QIB portion subscribed 2.75 times, HNI portion subscribed 1.05 times and Retail portion subscribed 2.34 times. There were 5.12 lakh applications and this was the lowest in this current set of four primary market issuances.

On the Covid-19 front, the world saw 20,75,41,683 patients, 43,67,373 deaths and 18,60,39,217 patients recovering. In India we saw 3,21,92,576 patients, 4,31,253 deaths and 3,13,76,015 patients recovering. Compared to the previous week, the world saw 45,39,447 new patients, 67,436 new deaths and 36,71,689 patients recovering. In India we saw 2,58,121 new patients, 3,361 deaths and 4,76,244 patients recovering.

The week ahead has a trading holiday on Thursday the 19th of August. This would break the momentum of the markets and could see profit taking on account of positions being squared off on Wednesday prior to the holiday. Prior to that, markets would see the listing of four issues on Monday. These are from Devyani International, Krsnaa Diagnostics, Exxaro Tiles and Windlas Biotech Limited. These listings and the huge number of results announced over the weekend would keep markets busy.

It's becoming increasingly clear that markets have already achieved the first target which was 3 per cent from the previous top made in February 2021. Having achieved the same comfortably and momentum just beginning, we have a long way to go. How much and how long it will continue would remain a debatable point. At unchartered territory, it becomes that much tougher to predict the entire and exact course of action.

As of now what is clear is the fact that we have more distance to go and it would continue to happen in the benchmark indices, BSESENSEX and NIFTY. As we approach the final leg of the rally which would be very volatile and bigger in daily moves, you will see the heavyweight stocks move sharply. For example, expect a stock like Hind Unilever to move 100 Rs plus in a single day or ITC to move 20-30 Rs in a couple of days. These are heavyweight stocks and would add tremendous weight to the indices.

The strategy would be to continue booking profits in small and midcap stocks. As witnessed in the week gone by, the midcap and Smallcap indices have actually ended in the red while BSESENSEX and NIFTY have recorded decent gains. While staying in cash could be a very good idea, for those unable to stay away from markets it makes sense to invest in quality large cap stocks for the final move. These stocks should be part of the benchmark indices as far as possible. In volatile times, use sharp rallies to sell and dips to buy. Markets will remain volatile and we still have 8 trading sessions before August futures expire. For the record, the series is up 750 points or 4.76 per cent at the halfway mark.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

Source: IANS