, ||Why surveys failed to predict Trump popularity ||
The US had more than 230,000 deaths due to covid-19. More than 10 million people were infected with the virus. The economy is not in a good shape at all. With such a disastrous performance on the health front, it should have been easy to write off President Donald Trumps chances in the US presidential election. So it is not surprising that most pollsters predicted that Donald Trump will lose. But to the surprise of most pollsters, Trump seems to have a big chance of re-election. As this goes to press, there is no clear winner, but the race is far closer than many expected. Why do pollsters find it so difficult to read voters minds?
In 2016, while most pollsters predicted that Hillary Clinton would win, one pollster, The Trafalgar Group, called that election for Trump. The same pollster was one of the very few who predicted a Trump win again in 2020. What makes its research methodology so different from other polling agencies? According to Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group, the belief that guides its research methodology is that people are not honest with pollsters. This is because of a social desirability bias".
A social desirability bias is the tendency to under-report socially undesirable attitudes and behaviours, and to over-report what are considered desirable. It is a type of response bias in which people tend to answer questions in accordance with how their answers will be viewed by others, instead of replying truthfully. Respondents may give you answers that are more politically correct. The economist Timur Kuran, author of the book, Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification, says this behaviour tendency to falsify ones real opinion under perceived social pressure is very common in everyday life. Preference falsification is far more easier in stating ones voting preference because, unlike many other decisions which can be verified later, ones real voting behaviour will always remain anonymous.
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, ||Why surveys failed to predict Trump popularity || The US had more than 230,000 deaths due to covid-19. More than 10 million people were infected with the virus. The economy is not in a good shape at all. With such a disastrous performance on the health front, it should have been easy to write off President Donald Trumps chances in the US presidential election. So it is not surprising that most pollsters predicted that Donald Trump will lose. But to the surprise of most pollsters, Trump seems to have a big chance of re-election. As this goes to press, there is no clear winner, but the race is far closer than many expected. Why do pollsters find it so difficult to read voters minds? In 2016, while most pollsters predicted that Hillary Clinton would win, one pollster, The Trafalgar Group, called that election for Trump. The same pollster was one of the very few who predicted a Trump win again in 2020. What makes its research methodology so different from other polling agencies? According to Robert Cahaly of The Trafalgar Group, the belief that guides its research methodology is that people are not honest with pollsters. This is because of a social desirability bias". A social desirability bias is the tendency to under-report socially undesirable attitudes and behaviours, and to over-report what are considered desirable. It is a type of response bias in which people tend to answer questions in accordance with how their answers will be viewed by others, instead of replying truthfully. Respondents may give you answers that are more politically correct. The economist Timur Kuran, author of the book, Private Truths, Public Lies: The Social Consequences of Preference Falsification, says this behaviour tendency to falsify ones real opinion under perceived social pressure is very common in everyday life. Preference falsification is far more easier in stating ones voting preference because, unlike many other decisions which can be verified later, ones real voting behaviour will always remain anonymous.
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