మనదేశంలో లాక్ డౌన్ ఫేలయిందా?|| Did Lockdown Fail In India?
On May 22, for instance, the government touted a study by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and claimed that the lockdown had “saved between 1.2 – 2.1 lakh lives”. Such claims involve a comparison of the current figures for deaths with those obtained by extrapolating the early growth rate of the pandemic. But a little reflection shows that this is not the right metric to use to gauge the efficacy of the lockdown.
This is because even if a lockdown reduces the number of infections for a short period, in the absence of sustainable long-term measures, the pandemic will resume its original trajectory when the lockdown ends. Simple models suggest that, in such a scenario, when the pandemic has run its course, it will have extracted almost exactly the same final toll in lives as it would have without the lockdown.
Therefore, the lockdown should be evaluated by asking whether it has put the country’s healthcare system in a position to ensure that the pandemic remains suppressed for the foreseeable future
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మనదేశంలో లాక్ డౌన్ ఫేలయిందా?|| Did Lockdown Fail In India? On May 22, for instance, the government touted a study by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and claimed that the lockdown had “saved between 1.2 – 2.1 lakh lives”. Such claims involve a comparison of the current figures for deaths with those obtained by extrapolating the early growth rate of the pandemic. But a little reflection shows that this is not the right metric to use to gauge the efficacy of the lockdown. This is because even if a lockdown reduces the number of infections for a short period, in the absence of sustainable long-term measures, the pandemic will resume its original trajectory when the lockdown ends. Simple models suggest that, in such a scenario, when the pandemic has run its course, it will have extracted almost exactly the same final toll in lives as it would have without the lockdown. Therefore, the lockdown should be evaluated by asking whether it has put the country’s healthcare system in a position to ensure that the pandemic remains suppressed for the foreseeable future
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