Can AAP save its shrinking vote share in Delhi?

By Nivedita Singh

New Delhi, Feb 8 (SocialNews.XYZ) The vote share of Delhi's ruling Aam Aadmi Party has been shrinking since it swept the 2015 Assembly polls with 54.34 per cent votes, making the 2020 polls even more crucial for the Arvind Kejriwal-led party.

The Aam Aadmi Party had changed the political picture of Delhi since its formation in 2012. While the assembly polls before 2012 were between the Congress and the BJP, the assembly elections since 2013 had been all about AAP in tha national capital.

In the 2013 Assembly polls, while the Congress had secured a vote share of 24.55 per cent, the BJP had secured 33.07 per cent vote share and the AAP, which was contesting for the first time, had secured 29.49 per cent.

The AAP and the Congress joined hands to form Arvind Kejriwal-led government which lasted for 49 days.

In 2015 Assembly polls, the AAP bagged 67 out of 70 assembly seats and its vote share jumped to 54.34 per cent. The BJP's vote share was roughly the same at 32.19 per cent, while that of Congress dropped to 9.65 per cent.

However, that was the peak of the AAP's vote share.

Since the 2015 Assembly polls, the city has witnessed one Lok Sabha and one MCD elections and in both of them AAP's vote share has gone down even from that of in 2013 polls. However, it is important to note that there is a difference in the voting patterns in different elections.

Delhi witnessed MCD polls in 2017, during which AAP's vote share came down to 26 per cent, while that of Congress was 21 per cent. The BJP had the highest vote share at 37 per cent.

In the 2019 general elections, AAP's vote share shrank to just 18 per cent from 32.90 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, with the party slipping to the third position in five of the seven Lok Sabha seats and three of its candidates losing their deposits.

The vote share of the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2019 Lok Sabha went up to 56.58 per cent from last time's 46.40 per cent, as it retained all the seven seats here. The vote share of the Congress also went up from 15.10 per cent in 2014 Lok Sabha polls to 22.46 per cent in 2019.

Delhi's ruling AAP was second on all the Lok Sabha seats in Delhi in 2014 general elections. The Congress, which was third on all the seats in 2014, on the other hand, was second on five seats in 2019 and lost its deposit on one seat.

Delhi witnessed assembly polls just months after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Also, apart from the assembly elections in Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party had only managed to get enough seats in Punjab, where it is the main opposition party, while it has contested both Assembly and Lok Sabha elections in a number of states.

Not just for the AAP, but the Delhi Assembly polls are very crucial for all the three parties here -- the AAP, the BJP and the Congress. While the Congress is aiming to regain the glory of its 15-year rule, the BJP is too desperate to regain the city, where it was last elected in 1993.

BJP got its highest vote share in Delhi Assembly polls in 1993 -- 42.82 per cent votes -- and had formed a government. The vote share of Congress was 34.48 per cent then.

Later, between 1998 and 2008, the Congress was elected with more than 40 per cent vote share. While the BJP's vote share in 1998, 2003 and 2008 was 34.02 per cent, 35.22 per cent and 36.33 per cent, and that of Congress was 47.76 per cent, 48.13 per cent and 40.30 per cent respectively.

Delhi is voting on Saturday and the results will be announced on February 11.

(Nivedita Singh can be contacted at nivedita.singh@ians.in)

Source: IANS