With Iran-US tension easing, expect markets to move up

By Arun Kejriwal

Markets were under pressure in the first half of the week and waited for Iran to come out of the period of mourning and then gauge the response to the killing of their top chief of the Revolutionary Guards. Post the mourning period the retaliation which came in the form of missile attacks at two bases of the US army in Iraq was a measured attack and certainly not meant to escalate tensions. President Donald Trump for once showed restraint and helped in easing global tensions by talking down the markets. A net result of all of this was markets went up globally. Crude oil prices fell and so did gold. In a nutshell what was being talked about as the probable beginning of world war III, saw tensions de-escalating in a big manner.

BSESENSEX gained 135.11 points or 0.33 per cent to close at 41,599.72 points while NIFTY gained 30.15 points or 0.25 per cent to close at 12.256.80 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 gain 0.27 per cent, 0.28 per cent and 0.37 per cent, respectively. BSEMIDCAP was up 0.29 per cent, while BSESMALLCAP gained 1.13 per cent.

During the week we saw BSESENSEX lose 1,000 points to touch a low of 40,476.55 points and then make a new lifetime high at 41,775 points. NIFTY similarly lost 300 points to make a low of 11,929 points and then a new lifetime high at 12,311 points.

Tata Sons in their appeal to Supreme Court against the order of reinstating Cyrus Mistry issued by NCLAT got the expected stay. Corporate India would certainly be interested in the final judgement as it has raised many issues of interest and also rights of minority shareholders.

The US-Iran tension seems to have significantly eased of and the acceptance of Iran in downing the Ukrainian passenger plane accidentally taken centre stage. Without doubt the people of Ukraine would ask for huge compensation for the loss of lives of 176 people at some point of time, this issue would indirectly shift the focus from US-Iran to Iran-Ukraine.

The matter of Sterling and Wilson Solar Limited is becoming interesting. In the Red Herring Prospectus on page 84, it is clearly mentioned that the objects of the issue include the Promoter Selling Shareholders utilising a portion of the Net Offer Proceeds, towards funding full repayment of the loans due to the Company going public, and Sterling and Wilson International Solar FZCO from SWPL and Sterling and Wilson International FZE (a subsidiary of SWPL) respectively within 90 days from the date of listing of the Equity Shares. This period expired in November 2019. The board has approved an extension for the loans to be repaid in a phased manner till September 2020. This is a serious issue and object of the issue cannot be changed without the consent of shareholders particularly the minority shareholders. The share price has fallen significantly and therefore not liked by shareholders. What view would be taken by SEBI is yet to be finalised. This certainly would be a high-profile judgement and considering that the Shapoorji Pallonji group is fighting the Tata's would make it even more of a high-profile case.

Result season has begun and one would see corporate results for the quarter October-December or Q3 of FY2019-20 coming in over the next five weeks. The season has begun well and one would hope that there are positive surprises and some green shoots visible.

Markets have recovered significantly from intra week lows and are back on track to continuing their upward move. One should expect markets to move up in the coming week led by midcap and Smallcap stocks, ably supported by the large caps. In case corporate results lend a helping hand the movement could be stronger and faster. Also, developments on the geo-political front would also be at the back of the mind of investors.

In such a scenario it makes sense to ride the rally and also book profits stock specifically as and when the opportunity arises. With budget three weeks away, expect markets to start reacting to expected events in the budget.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal)

Source: IANS