Markets will be volatile, trade cautiously

By Arun Kejriwal

The week gone by had plenty of action and also drama. The week began on a weak note and was followed on Tuesday by the disappearance of Coffee Day's promoter V.G. Siddhartha which culminated in his body being found in a river. Markets recovered on Wednesday but lost on Thursday. Friday was a see saw battle before finally markets reversed sharp losses and ended positive. BSESENSEX lost 764.57 points or 2.02 per cent to close at 37,118.22 points. NIFTY lost 286.95 points or 2.54 per cent to close at 10,997.35 points. The low on the BSESENSEX was 36,607 points while it was 10,848 on NIFTY.

The other indices saw the BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 2.52 per cent, 2.53 per cent and 2.67 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP was down 2.23 per cent while BSESMALLCAP was down 4.32 per cent. The India Rupee lost 68 paisa or 0.99 per cent to close at Rs 69.58. In global news, Dow Jones lost 707.44 points or 2.60 per cent to close at 26,485.01 points. This happened even after the FED cut interest rates by 25 basis points to make the band 2-2.25 per cent. This cut was after 11 years. Markets wanted the cut in the first place and after it happened failed to understand how to interpret the same.

FPI's have been big sellers and have sold a little over Rs 20,000 crs in July. There was news in the market on Friday that the PMO is looking into the issue and there maybe some changes in the surcharge on the super-rich trusts concerned. This helped to soothe nerves even though they were sellers of Rs 2,888 crore on Friday. In case there is some rethink and announcement on the same, there could be a strong rally in the offing.

Shares of Coffee Day and Sical Logistics hit the lower circuit on all four days after the disappearance of the promoter. Coffee Day shares lost Rs 94.60 or 48.64 per cent to close at Rs 99.90, while Sical Logistics lost Rs 44.10 or 48.28 per cent to close at Rs 47.25. Shares of both the companies were down the maximum permissible 20 per cent on the first two days and then 10 per cent on the next two. Starting Monday, they would be permitted a 5 per cent movement in either direction. The famous tag line of CCD 'A lot can happen over Coffee' could be changed tongue in cheek to 'A lot has happened over Coffee'.

Over the weekend one has been hearing rumours on the trifurcation of J&K and automatic cancellation of Articles 35A and 370. There has been heated exchange of fire on the LOC as well and the Amarnath yatra has been called off. The situation is tense and people expect some big announcements in the coming days.

The issue from Affle (India) Ltd which had opened on Monday July 29 and closed on July 31 was subscribed 86.49 times. The QIB portion was subscribed 55.31 times, HNI 198.69 times and Retail portion 1,096 times.

RBI meets this week for its monetary policy review meet on August 7 where the consensus is that they would cut rates by 25 basis points for sure. Having changed the norm of 25 basis points, the cut could be steeper. While 50 basis points in the middle of the monsoon may be a little steep, expect a change from convention and a little more than 25 but less than 50.

Two more issues open for subscription this week in the primary market. The first is from Spandana Sphoorty Financial Ltd, a micro finance company which is tapping the capital markets with its fresh issue of Rs 400 crore and an offer for sale of 93.56 lakh shares. The issue opens on August 5 and closes on August 7. The company was admitted to CDR after the A P crisis in 2010 and successfully exited the same. It is now promoted by the original promoter Padmaja Gangireddy and corporate promoter Kanchenjunga Ltd. The shares are being offered in a price band of Rs 853-856, which is a price earnings multiple of 15.96-15.99 times based on consolidated earnings per share of Rs 53.35 for the year ended in March 2019. The issue looks interesting and, in my opinion, maybe compared with Credit Access.

The second issue is from Sterling Wilson Solar Ltd which is an EPC player in solar. The company is tapping the capital markets with its offer for sale of Rs 3,150 crore in a price band of Rs 775-780. The issue opens on August 6 and closes on August 8. The consolidated EPS is Rs 39.85 for the year ended in March 2019 and the price earnings multiple is between 19.45-19.57. The company has completed the world's largest single location plant in Abu Dhabi (UAE) of 1,177 MW. The future is solar and the way costs have come down and at the same time efficiencies on account of yield gone up make this the future of energy. Incidentally this would be the first ever primary issue from the house of Shapoorji Pallonji in 150 years.

The week ahead will be driven by hope and expectation on the RBI front, FPI change in taxation and political front concerning Jammu and Kashmir. Markets will be volatile and each of this news has the potential to turn the markets on its head. Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is the founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services. The views expressed are personal.)