In volatile week, investors must have buying support

By Arun Kejriwal

The week gone by began on a positive note and saw markets gain on the first three days of the week. Thursday, which was weekly NIFTY and Bank NIFTY expiry, saw markets giving up cumulatively gains of the first three days. Friday was a bloodbath after the Finance Ministry made it clear that there would be no rollback of the surcharge which affected FPIs as well. The net result at the end of the week was that BSESENSEX lost 399.22 points or 1.03 per cent to close at 38,337.01 points. NIFTY lost 133.25 points or 1.15 per cent to close at 11,419.25 points. The broader market saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 1.31 per cent, 1.43 per cent and 1.57 per cent respectively. BSEMIDCAP lost 3.27 per cent while BSESMALLCAP lost 3.38 per cent.

The Indian Rupee lost 12 paisa or 0.17 per cent to close at Rs 68.80. Dow Jones lost 177.83 points or 0.65 per cent to close at 27,154.20 points.

The week ahead sees July futures expire on Thursday. The current level of NIFTY at 11,419.25 points is down 526.65 points or 4.41 per cent compared to June expiry of 11,945.90 points. With such a big advantage that the bears have, they should easily be able to win the month by a big margin.

The BSESENSEX is close to the beginning of the gap which was made on Monday, May 20, post exit poll results. This gap began at 38,001 points on the BSESENSEX. The similar level on NIFTY was at 11,426 points which was just about breached on Friday. Effectively markets have given up the entire gains made post the gap up opening. Support exists for the market between 38,000 and 38,200 on the BSESENSEX and around 11,100 on NIFTY. These as of now look like they should hold in the short to medium term.

The advent of weekly futures on the two indices on NSE, namely NIFTY and Bank Nifty, have increased volatility in the markets considerably. While markets may be fairly range bound on four of the five days, come Thursday it is super volatile. Not sure whether it adds to people's wealth or erodes it. It certainly makes markets more difficult to understand. The week ahead sees both weekly and monthly expiring and this could make markets really volatile on Thursday.

Market players are looking for safety and are willing to pay a premium for the same. Take the case of HDFC AMC which saw its share price rise by 19 per cent in a single week from Rs 1,947 to Rs 2,316. The company reported a good set of numbers even after SEBI had reduced the fees that an AMC could charge. This has actually turned out to be an entry barrier for new AMCs as it has become that much more difficult to get a corpus for new funds from such houses. The share price of HDFC AMC has more than doubled from its issue price of Rs 1,100 in under a year. The EPS for the year ended March 2019 was Rs 43.78 and it is Rs 13.69 for the current quarter ended June 2019 versus Rs 9.68 in the year ago.

Reliance Industries declared its results and the revenue per person in the case of JIO has fallen. While the overall results show a growth, its refining and petrochemicals business were sluggish. This was offset by a strong show from retail and digital services business. The company has brought in Brookfield as an investor in its tower business at an investment of Rs 25,215 crore. This money would be used to repay debt amongst others. JIO will now pay rent on the use of towers going forward.

A key indicator from this is the fact that the IPO from JIO is that much closer now. While it would be just hazarding a guess, the same happening in around 12 months' time is doable and could keep markets guessing.

The week ahead would be volatile on account of the upcoming expiry. It would look to find support at some lower levels after being beaten down during the last two days. Shorting the market at these levels could be dangerous and investors would be well advised to look for buying support rather than shorting.

(Arun Kejriwal is founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Series. The views expressed are personal.)