Indices to remain volatile as fund outflows, subdue results persist

By Rohit Vaid

Mumbai, July 21 (IANS) The Indian equity markets is set to face another volatile week ahead, as the ongoing flight of foreign funds is expected to continue on the back of latest taxation surcharge on the super rich category along with subdued quarterly earning numbers.

Market observers opined that monsoon progress coupled with derivatives expiry will also affect investors sentiments.

"Markers are likely to remain volatile heading into the expiry (July 25). However, markets seems to be hitting important area of support on most indices," said Sahil Kapoor, Chief Market Strategist-Research, Edelweiss Investor Research.

"Expect stocks to stabilise this week and Nifty to head towards 11,650 points by end of the month.

Till date, an outflow of over Rs 5,500 crore has taken place in the month of July, which is the highest this year. The surcharge was announced on July 5 in full-Budget 2019-20.

Besides, investors will also look out for the upcoming Q1 results.

According to SMC Investments & Advisors Chairman and Managing Director D.K. Aggarwal: "Markets have moved sideways to lower in the first week of earnings, and it is expected that earnings season could deliver more stock specific movements in the market."

Companies such as Larsen & Toubro, TVS Motor Company, Hindustan Unilever, Zee Entertainment Enterprises, IDFC First Bank, Ambuja Cements, Bank of Baroda, Biocon, Mphasis, Tata Motors, ABB India, Bajaj Auto, Maruti Suzuki India, ICICI Bank are expected to announce their Q1 earning results in the coming week.

"The week ahead will focus on results from heavy weights like HUL, ICICI Bank, Tata Motors and L&T," said Deepak Jasani, Head of Retail Research for HDFC Securities.

"Also commentary by consumer-focused companies on demand will be closely watched by investors. Progress of monsoon will also be tracked closely."

In terms of currency, the rupee weakened by 12 paise to close at 68.81 from its previous week's close of 68.69 per greenback.

"Rupee broadly traded weakish to close at 68.80 after touching 69 on Thursday. Negative global growth concerns and strong dollar led to the move... But broadly the range 68.40 to 69 remains intact," said Sajal Gupta, Head, Forex and Rates, Edelweiss Securities.

"Equity weakness and crude oil prices shall be the key themes to watch in coming week and weakness may continue... Next week's range can be expected between 68.65 and 69.30."

On technical charts, the NSE Nifty50 remains in a downtrend.

"Technically, with the Nifty breaking the previous lows of 11,461 points and falling sharply, the index is now in a firm downtrend," Jasani said.

"Further downsides are likely in the coming week once the immediate support of 11,400 points is broken, in which case testing of 11,150 points is possible. Any pullback rallies could find resistance at 11,586 points."

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)