Markets will remain volatile, trade cautiously

By Arun Kejriwal

Markets continued to remain choppy and volatile on expected lines. On the very first day of the week, they traded for quite some time in the band of 11,700-750 and once that broke, all hell was let loose. Markets saw significant losses on Monday. For the next three days they gained and once again gave a feeling that the level mentioned above was sacrosanct. While Friday was another bad day at the markets, the level held. The week ended with BSESENSEX losing 257.58 points or 0.65 per cent to close at 39,194.49 points while NIFTY lost 99.20 points or 0.84 per cent to close at 11,724.10 points. The broader indices saw BSE100, BSE200 and BSE500 lose 0.77 per cent, 0.77 per cent and 0.86 per cent respectively.

 

The fall on Monday and Friday saw the BSESENSEX lose more than 400 points on each day and they lost 898 points combined. They regained 641 points on three days to lose 257 points for the week. NIFTY similarly lost 151 points and 107 points for a loss of 258 points on the two days. They recovered 159 over the next three to finally settle with losses of 99 points. This data has been given to illustrate two things, firstly the volatility and secondly the trigger-happy nature of the market where they are more than happy to short the market at every available opportunity.

Dow Jones had a strong showing and gained 629.52 points or 2.41 per cent to close at 26,719.13 points. Incidentally the Fed decided to keep interest rates unchanged but hinted that they would be willing to cut if the need arose.

Global tensions continue to rise and Iran shot down an unmanned high-tech surveillance drone of the US, which prompted Washington to launch an attack on Iran which was called off with 10 minutes to go before it actually happened. The reason was that President Donald Trump asked how many casualties the attack could lead to and on being told that the number could be as high as 150, decided against it. Crude prices have since risen but not alarmingly as yet.

There is an IPO from Indiamart Intermesh Ltd opening on Monday, June 24, and closing on Wednesday, June 26. The price band for the secondary issue consisting of entirely an offer for sale of 48,87,862 shares is Rs 970-973 and would garner Rs 475 crore. The headline PE ratio is an unheard of 127.40 to 127.79 times. This is on account of the treatment of IND-AS accounting standard where there is a non-cash entry of Rs 65 crore on account of Compulsory Convertible Cumulative Preference (CCCP) shares, which were converted in financial year 2019. If this item is reversed, then the PE becomes a much more respectable 32.8 times.

The company is in the business of online B2B marketplace for business products and services. The revenue model is from subscription fee paid by sellers. The growth in revenue from paying subscribers is 19.68 per cent. The total revenue was Rs 548.4 crore in the year ended March 2019. The company has deferred revenue of Rs 586 crore which is revenue received in advance from subscription. This would typically get adjusted in 20 months. The EBITDA for March 2019 was Rs 82.3 crore. The company is debt-free and has substantial cash holdings. The issue is likely to do well and would have listing gains. This incidentally would be the first IPO in Modi 2.0 regime.

June futures would expire on Thursday, June 27. The current value of NIFTY is lower by 221.80 points or 1.86 per cent. The difference is insignificant considering the volatility and the same could move in either direction.

Markets are unsure of what the budget holds for them. While people hope that many things would happen in the budget, they are not sure of what would be the focus area this time around. While priority is kick-starting the economy, what measures would be announced for the same are yet unknown. Markets would continue to be volatile in the week ahead and see sharp intra-day moves while the level of 11,700 or thereabouts would act as a pivot. Trade cautiously.

(Arun Kejriwal is founder of Kejriwal Research and Investment Services.)