Below normal rainfall expected in monsoon, 15% chance of drought: Skymet

New Delhi, May 14 (IANS) In bad news for the farm sector, India is expected to receive below normal rainfall during the upcoming Monsoon which is likely to arrive in Kerala on June 4 and there is a 15 per cent chance of drought, private weather forecaster Skymet said on Tuesday.

Besides arriving late by about 4 days as the normal date is June 1, the monsoon is expected to have a sluggish start, it said.

According to the forecaster, there is a 30 per cent chance of normal rainfall, which is between 96 and 104 per cent of Long Period Average (LPA), 55 per cent chance of below normal rainfall, which is between 90 to 95 per cent of LPA and 15 per cent chance of drought, meaning rainfall less than 90 per cent of the LPA, Skymet said.

"It seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over peninsular India is going to be slow," according to Skymet's Managing Director Jatin Singh.

He said all the four regions are "going to witness less than normal rainfall" this season. This is bad news for the farm sector which depends heavily on the monsoon rainfall.

Singh said east and north-east India and central parts will be poorer than north-west India and south peninsula.

The forecaster said east and north-east India are expected to receive 92 per cent rainfall of the LPA, which is below normal.

The region contributes maximum amount of share and accounts for 38 per cent of monsoon rainfall, it said.

Geographical risk remains high for Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal, while marginal for north-east India, the Skymet said.

In this region, there is a 10 per cent chance of deficit rainfall, 50 per cent chance of below normal rainfall, 25 per cent chance of normal, 10 per cent chance of above normal and 5 per cent chance of excess rainfall, it said.

About north-west India, the rainfall prediction is 96 per cent of the LPA.

The region, with the least period of active monsoon, contributes only 17 per cent of the seasonal rainfall.

This region is expected to record normal rainfall to the tune of 96 per cent of LPA, with hilly states of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand likely to perform better than the plains of Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Delhi-NCR, the forecaster said.

In this region, there is a 10 per cent chance of excess rainfall, 10 per cent chance of above normal rainfall, 60 per cent chance of normal rainfall, 15 per cent chance of below normal rainfall and 5 per cent chance of deficient rainfall, it said.

The monsoon rainfall in Central India, which contributes the second highest share of 26 per cent rainfall to the country, is expected to be 91 per cent of LPA, the lowest of all regions, the Skymet predicted.

"Odisha and Chhattisgarh are likely to be rainiest of all while Vidarbha, Marathwada, West Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat will be poorer than normal," it said.

There is a 20 per cent chance of deficient rainfall, 50 per cent chance of below normal, 20 per cent chance of normal rainfall, 5 per cent chance of above normal and 5 per cent chance of excess rainfall, it said.

In the south peninsula region, which accounts for 19 per cent of the total monsoon, the rainfall in the coming season is expected to be 95 per cent, the Skymet said.

North interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema may see poor rainfall while Kerala and coastal Karnataka are likely to perform better, it said.

The chance of rainfall being deficient is 10 per cent in this region, while there is a 15 per cent chance of below normal rainfall, 60 per cent chance of normal rainfall, 10 per cent chance of above rainfall and 5 per cent chance of excess rainfall, the forecaster said.