India’s trade figures will be major themes for the upcoming week

By Rohit Vaid

Mumbai, March 10 (IANS) The build-up to the general elections and global growth concerns along with macro-economic data points are expected to influence the Indian equity market during the upcoming week.

Market observers pointed out that other factors such as stock-specific action, movement of rupee against the US dollar and crude oil prices will also set the market's trajectory.

"General election and geopolitical tension are the two important factors which will give direction to the market," said D.K. Aggarwal, Chairman and Managing Director, SMC Investments and Advisors.

"Nifty is expected to move in the range of 10,900-11,300 while Bank Nifty is expected to move in the range of 27,500-28,000 levels."

According to Sahil Kapoor, Chief Market Strategist-Research, Edelweiss Wealth Management: "The frontline index Nifty continues to remain in a broad range... Until the range is broken, the index may find it hard to establish a major trend."

"Global growth slowdown is becoming more pronounced with recently announced economic data. This would weigh on Indian growth as well."

Apart from growth concerns, investors will look out for upcoming macro-economic data points such as the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI).

"Key domestic indicators are due next week like IIP, WPI and CPI inflation. Consensus expects moderation in inflation, while IIP is expected to decelerate," said Geojit Financial Services Head of Research Vinod Nair.

Besides, other macro-economic data points such as WPI and India's trade figures will be major themes for the upcoming week.

"The markets would continue to remain in a broader range with global cues (poor US job data and global growth scare) remains an overhang. The CPI number is critical from the future RBI policy moves perspective," Devendra Nevgi, Founder and Principal Partner, Delta Global Partners, told IANS.

"The FPI (foreign institutional investors) flows remain supportive of the markets in the month of March and will help the positive sentiment towards INR."

The provisional figures from the stock exchanges showed that during last week, FIIs bought scrip worth Rs 4,313.99 crore.

Consequently, the Indian rupee gained 85 paise to Rs 70.85.

On technical charts, the short-term trend of the National Stock Exchange's (NSE) Nifty50 remains positive.

"Traders will need to watch if the index can now hold above the immediate supports of 11,009-10,998 for further upsides in the coming week. Immediate resistances are at 11,094-11,118," said HDFC Securities' Retail Research Head Deepak Jasani told IANS.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)

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