Global cues, inflation data to drive equity markets’ movements

By Rohit Vaid

Mumbai, Aug 13 (IANS) Risk emanating out of the growing geo-political tensions between US and North Korea, along with the ongoing domestic quarterly results season is expected to influence equity markets' movement during the truncated week starting from August 14.

According to market observers, investors will look out for other major factors like macro-economic inflation data points, rupee's movement and direction of the foreign funds' flow.

"Markets would closely track the geo-political risks emanating from the US-North Korea tensions. The global risk appetite remains the key for the markets in the short term," Devendra Nevgi, Chief Executive of Zyfin Advisors, told IANS.

"Domestic institutional investors continue to support the markets taking advantage of the recent dip. In other words, the market would be driven by global risk, support from domestic flows and earnings next week."

Apart from global cues, investors' risk-taking appetite is expected to be hampered by the subdued industrial output figures which were released after market hours on last Friday.

"The IIP figures were not exciting and the government's mid-year economic survey cited new risks which can hinder economic growth," Nevgi said.

Besides global cues, the ongoing quarterly earning results from the likes of Coal India, Future Consumer, Tata Power, Hindustan Zinc and LIC Housing Finance will player a major role in the general market dynamics.

"Currently, domestic confidence has fallen given Sebi's action over shell companies which impacts the near-term liquidity," said Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services.

"However, market will be more concerned on any slowdown in business growth which will lead to downgrade in earnings' forecast for the next 1 to 2 quarters."

Apart from quarterly results, macro-economic inflation gauges -- Consumer Price Index and Wholesale Price Index (WPI) -- and the country's trade deficit data will be keenly watched by investors.

"Going ahead market will also take cues from CPI and WPI inflation data. Any escalation of geopolitical tensions will have bearing on the market," Nair said.

On technical levels, the NSE Nifty's underlying trend has turned bearish with further downsides expected.

"Technically, with the Nifty correcting sharply this week and breaking the recent supports in the process, the underlying short term trend has turned down," Deepak Jasani, Head, Retail Research, HDFC Securities, told IANS.

"Further downsides are likely early next week once the immediate supports of 9,668 points are broken. Pullback rallies could find resistance at 9,913 points."

Last week, key equity indices -- the Sensex and the Nifty50 -- dived into the negative territory for the first time after five consecutive weeks of gains on the back of negative global cues, subdued quarterly earnings and foreign fund outflows.

Consequently, the 30-scrip Sensitive Index (Sensex) of the BSE declined by over 1,100 points or 3.40 per cent to close at 31,213.59 points.

Similarly, the Nifty50 of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) closed at 9,710.80 points, down 355 points or 3.53 per cent.

(Rohit Vaid can be contacted at rohit.v@ians.in)